Wiederaenders: Coronavirus has not peaked locally, yet

This chart from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows how flattening the curve helps so that hospitals will not become overwhelmed. Continuing to stay home and practicing social distancing, for instance, slow the spread - flattening the curve. (Courtesy)

By Tim Wiederaenders | TWieds_editor

Originally Published: April 15, 2020 4:51 p.m.

We have become aware of statements circulating around town that the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic has passed, if only for Yavapai County.

That surprised me, a lot. So, Wednesday morning I started crunching numbers — the number of confirmed cases announced each day from Yavapai County Community Health Services.

Chart No. 1, shown here, is mine — the top line is the progression toward the total (71 cases as of April 15); the bottom is the daily increase.

Graph

COVID-19 by Day

COVID-19 by day
Infogram

The logic is that for the past seven days or so, we’ve seen only one to three new cases each day.

At the end of March and the beginning of April, there were — call them significant spikes. The peak? That is what some might perceive.

For us, I went to the expert: Stephen Everett, MPH, with the county Community Health Services. This is the guy who is in charge of the COVID-19 effort in our county.

Here is what he said:

“(They) may have thought we’ve peaked because we had so many cases initially and then slowed down. The thing you have to remember is that we had a scarcity of tests until late March, so when testing became available, there was a sizeable number of ‘old’ cases; cases that would have been identified earlier had there been testing. So when testing began, those older cases joined the newer cases in testing, giving an artificial kick to the initial numbers.”

Chart No. 2 (Everett’s chart, shown here) includes cases by specimen collection date.

“I used a logarithmic scale that shows percent change. When the line goes flat, that means we’ve reached the peak. We’re still ascending, though not by much. If things continue as they are, I’d say we’ll have reached our peak in a week or so.”

Folks, despite what you might read on social media or hear from another source, please consult the experts before sending/sharing a message — a false message that the crisis has passed.

That’s what saying the peak is behind us does right now.

Even Gov. Doug Ducey, who said he is eying a May 1 re-start to Arizona’s economy, said he will do so only if it is safe and healthy for everyone.

We are not there yet.

Tim Wiederaenders is the senior news editor for the Prescott News Network. Follow him on Twitter @TWieds_editor. Reach him at 928-445-3333, ext. 2032, or twieds@prescottaz.com.