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GOP making gains, Democrats still lead

WASHINGTON ‹ Republicans have moved closer to the Democrats in a congressional voter-preference poll just as the election campaigns near the official Labor Day starting gate.

National news media mostly ignored the surprising findings in a little-noticed Gallup Poll that shows the Democrats barely leading the Republicans by just two points ‹ 47 percent to 45 percent.

After months of generic polling numbers by Gallup and others showing the GOP lagged far behind the Democrats by a seemingly insurmountable nine to 10 points, the titanic political battle for control of Congress is virtually dead even. This means we may not experience the feared Category 5 political storm some election analysts have forecast that would topple the GOP's House majority and cut deeply into its grip on the Senate.

The venerable and respected Gallup organization, which did the poll for USA Today, said the GOP's unexpected rise in the polls "represents the Republicans' best performance in a single poll during the 2006 election cycle on this important measure of electoral strength."

In an analysis accompanying its findings last week, Gallup said, "The Republican increase does appear to be significant."

If the race is anywhere near as tight as Gallup said, it gives the GOP a much stronger edge in this year's elections. The chief reason: Republicans tend to turn out in larger numbers in midterm elections. Moreover, the GOP's high-tech, volunteer-driven voter-turnout apparatus is far superior to anything the Democrats are trying to patch together.

Who says so? Democrats themselves. "We're not going to be able to match their turnout system," a senior Democratic confessed to me earlier this month.

Gallup also acknowledges that Republican voters "are likely to perform better at the polls in November than would be indicated by pre-election surveys based on registered voters."

What has moved the GOP's numbers upward so swiftly?

A big factor was Bush's ascending movement in his job-approval polls to 42 percent, according to Gallup. That's still way below his presidency's highs, but the steady summer climb out of the 30 percent to 40 percent and, more recently, to 42 percent shows he has halted his downward spiral, especially among Republicans who are beginning to come back home as Bush sharpens the issues in the war on terrorism that divide the two parties.

Equally important was Bush's full-throated response to the foiled Islamic terrorist plot to blow up 10 passenger jets en route to the United States from Great Britain.

A few weeks ago, the Democrats were flying high in the generic polls, foretelling a wave of Republican losses in the House and Senate. But the once-hostile environment has turned noticeably friendlier for Republicans as voters contemplate putting liberal, anti-war Democrats in charge of national security and Bush and the GOP sharpen their message for the campaign to come.

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