6/7/2008 10:23:00 PM
Expert predicts early, severe monsoon season
| |
|
Arizona could see an early, more severe monsoon this year, University of Arizona Atmospheric Sciences Assistant Professor Christopher Castro said this past week. Castro also predicts it will be hotter than normal this month before the monsoon arrives, with more pre-monsoonal lightning strikes than usual.
"This is going to be potentially a trigger for increased wildfires," Castro said.
The state is likely to see more damaging and severe monsoon thunderstorms, he added.
It will be similar to the 1955 monsoon, he said.
The average monsoon start for Tucson is July 7, and Castro predicts it will come earlier, sometime in late June or early July. The monsoon generally arrives about a week later in the Prescott region than Tucson.
Tucson typically gets 6-7 inches of precipitation during the monsoon, for example, and this year it could see more like 9-10 inches, Castro said.
Castro admitted he's "going out on a limb a little bit with a seasonal outlook" because forecasting Arizona monsoon activity is extremely difficult.
He was part of an online climate briefing Wednesday organized by the University of Arizona Cooperative Extension and Climate Assessment of the Southwest. They conduct online climate briefings periodically throughout the year.
The widespread cooling of the Pacific Ocean called La Niña tends to produce dry winters and springs in Arizona, but it also can bring an early and wet monsoon, Castro said. El Niño, when the ocean warms, tends to have the opposite effects.
The national Climate Prediction Center is forecasting above-normal temperatures in the coming months, but sticking with equal chances for above-normal or below-normal precipitation, Castro noted. It's hard for national forecasts to take localized weather processes such as the Southwest's monsoon precipitation into account, he said.
Mike Crimmins, a climate science extension specialist at the University of Arizona, offered a brief overview of the spring's weather Wednesday before Castro spoke during the online briefing.
A deep trough brought good rain to Arizona during the third week of May, including more than 2.5 inches to parts of southern Arizona, Crimmins said.
However, "That doesn't change the story of spring, which was dry," Crimmins added.
"There was quite a lot of variability (in the weather) this spring," he added.
Contact the reporter at jdodder@prescottaz.com
|
Posted: Sunday, June 08, 2008
Article comment by:
Arizona Native
Arizona weather - hang a rock, and:
If the rock is wet - it's raining.
If the rock is white - it's snowing.
If the rock is moving - it's windy.
The only thing I know for sure about Arizona weather is that you can't predict it more than 24 hours in advance!
Posted: Sunday, June 08, 2008
Article comment by:
Ben
I can take the Thunder Boomers, just let us have the extra Rain. I bet many will agree.
Love the Rains.
|
Article Comment Submission Form
|
|
